Marriages That Make It To This Year Are More Likely To Last Forever, According To Research
Can we really predict if couples will stay together forever? Science says yes.
Junior REIS | Unsplash Many people spend their entire childhoods dreaming of their wedding and spending eternity with the love of their life. Every detail is planned out — what they will wear to the ceremony, how their wedding vows will sound, what their dream home will look like, and how many kids they will have.
But white weddings, picket fences, and golden anniversaries aside, researchers have been going on for eons about how human beings aren't built for monogamy (Yes, despite what movies and television shows have made us believe).
All it takes is a peek at divorce rates (averaging about 42%) and a double-click through a cheating hearts website to know that a blissful lifetime of matrimony may not be entirely realistic for everyone. But at what point in the marriage do you know that the feelings of attraction and love are the real deal?
Research found that marriages that make it past 12 years are more likely to stay together forever.
Biologists might point to the five-year mark, and psychologists (or film enthusiasts) to the seven-year mark when it comes to the deterioration of the average marriage. However, a study from the Grant Thornton accountancy group, which was based on a survey of 90 of the country's biggest family law firms, actually found that the old Seven-Year-Itch may be a bit premature. The average married couple starts to fall apart at around the 12-year mark, but the couples who can make it past unlucky number 12 are much more likely to stay together forever.
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The majority of couples now divorce after spending over a decade together. The most common reasons for a marriage ending in divorce? According to the study, "falling out of love" and "growing apart," which honestly sounds sad, but almost amicable.
Also revealed by the study, more than a quarter of couples break up because of infidelity. The American Psychological Association (APA) has similar findings, that 20-40% of divorces are linked to cheating by at least one partner. However, infidelity doesn't always mean divorce. Nearly 57% of couples end up staying together after finding out, but it doesn't necessarily mean the relationship will last forever.
Marriage rates have remained steady over the last decade, but divorce rates have actually declined.
The U.S. Census Bureau provided some recent data that examines marriage and divorce rates from 2012 and 2022. In 2012, out of 1,000 women aged 15 and older, roughly 16 got married. This number stayed almost exactly the same in 2022, meaning that marriage trends haven't changed over the decade. However, only 7 women out of 1,000 got divorced in 2022, compared to about 10 in 2012.
There could be several reasons to explain this decline. Perhaps people are setting higher standards for their potential partners and ensuring they are marrying someone who is truly a good match for them. Or, maybe divorce is out of reach during a time of such economic uncertainty, and they choose to remain in the marriage out of financial necessity.
Shifting priorities could also be a factor. Rather than dreaming of getting married and starting a family, it's become much more acceptable for young people to focus on their career and pursue other opportunities before settling down.
Other data revealed that, in many countries, people are marrying at an older age than in the past. In the U.S., women didn't get married until an average age of 28.6 in 2021. Maybe waiting until later in life to get married is the key to having a long-lasting marriage.
Why does it take 12 years in a marriage to fall out of love?
Is it a life-stage transition phenomenon? The onset of middle age and grappling with new responsibilities? Is it children and financial stressors? The natural shelf life of love? Or, is it something else entirely?
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Think of all the couples you know who started their marriage like it was a fairytale. The wedding was beautiful, the couple showed no signs of unhappiness, and expressed their love for one another at every moment possible. Then, after a few kids, a mortgage, and a soul-sucking job, things began going downhill. What's the reason?
Those are questions, unfortunately, that researchers are not able to answer with any certainty. As Sally Longworth, of Grant Thornton's Forensic and Investigation Services, said, "This rather dispels the age-old myth about marriages failing after seven years. It is impossible to put any scientific reasoning on why certain marriages succeed and others fail."
One thing that is certain, however, is that the longer a couple stays together, especially past that 12-year mark, the lower the risk of divorce. Lisa Helfend Meyer, Certified Specialist in Family Law, explained to Fatherly, after 12 years, couples realize that life, marriage included, is work and not an easy fairytale, so they either decide to see it through or walk away.
Melissa Noble is an integrated senior writer and editor from New York. Her work has been featured across the web, as well as New York Magazine and OK! Magazine. She received a Bachelor's of Science in Mass Communications, News Editorial from Virginia Commonwealth University and currently serves as Associate Creative Director at Weber Shadwick.
