Sometimes even the best shows don’t win, because Emmy politics rule all.
I watch a lot of TV, and when I say "a lot,"I mean it's kind of sad how much time I spend planted on the couch. Luckily, it’s my job, so no one can really judge me, but that does give me an advantage for award show predictions. Unfortunately, when it comes to award shows, it’s all about Hollywood politics and who knows how to schmooze the members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences. Therefore, some of the people who you really think deserve to win go home empty handed.
There are so many great TV shows on the air right now, but only one can be crowned winner. So here are my predictions of what will probably win vs. what should win this year. Please don’t yell at me when I don’t pick your favorite show: I just professionally watch TV for a living.
Drama Series Nominees:
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
What Will Win: Breaking Bad, because it’s the absolute last time it will be nominated and they will want to honor it and all its glory.
What Should Win: Game of Thrones, because it’s the best damn show on TV right now. However, there are plenty of opportunities for it to win in the future because it has many seasons left.
The Big Bang Theory
Orange Is the New Black
What Will Win: Orange Is The New Black. It’s the new “cool” show to love and something has to break the Modern Family streak after all these years.
What Should Win: Orange Is The New Black. Out of all the choices, this season of this show has been absolutely brilliant, and a strong cast of female women never hurts either.
Lead Actor in a Drama
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Woody Harrelson, True Detective
Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Who Will Win: Bryan Cranston. Again, it’s the last time to honor him for Breaking Bad. Still, Matthew McConaughey is a very strong contender for this category, especially since Breaking Bad will get the Best Drama.
Who Should Win: Matthew McConaughey! Even though I had to watch the first episode a few times to figure out what he was saying, McConaughey was amazing in that show and is still high on his Oscar win.
Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Martin Freeman, Fargo
Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
Idris Elba, Luther
Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
Who Will Win: Billy Bob Thornton. Hollywood TV Academy loves to honor movie actors doing TV.
Who Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, because Sherlock is actually one of the best shows on TV and no one in the history of forever has been a better Sherlock — and the last episode of season three was amazing.
Who Will Win: Robin Wright. House of Cards had a great year and will unfortunately be overlooked in the other categories, so having Robin Wright win will honor the show in some way.
Who Should Win: Lizzy Caplan. We love a good female lead and Lizzy Caplan proved that she’s not just Janice Ian, but a damn good actress. Also, it takes real skill to act as though you find Michael Sheen sexy. Woof.
Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven
Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Minnie Driver, Return to Zero
Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon
Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
Who Will Win: Jessica Lange. The problem with this category is that it’s always very random and not many people take the time to watch the movies/mini-series, so I’m assuming they will vote with what they know.
Who Should Win: Jessica Lange. This season of AHS wasn’t great, but as usual Jessica Lange killed it as the Supreme. Since she only has one more season left, she should continue to dominate this category.
Lead Actor in a Comedy
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Ricky Gervais, Derek
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
William H. Macy, Shameless
Who Will Win: Jim Parsons. The Academy loves Jim Parsons. He wins every year and there’s nothing new that’s so popular that it will push him out of the top spot.
Who Should Win: Ricky Gervais. It’s hard work to act out a mental disability. While I personally dislike Gervais, I think he did a great job in this show and should be recognized for it.
Lead Actress in a Comedy
Lena Dunham, Girls
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Who Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. She is phenomenal on Veep, and everyone loves her in Hollywood. She is always a favorite.
Who Should Win: Amy Poehler long has she been in the shadow of Liz Lemon. Leslie Knope is hands down one of the best characters on television and deserves an award for it after all these years.
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Real Time With Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
What Will Win: The Colbert Report. The show is ending soon, therefore they will want to honor it.
What Should Win: The Colbert Report. It deserves to win!
American Horror Story: Coven
Bonnie & Clyde
The White Queen
What Will Win: Fargo. There was a lot of buzz surrounding Fargo this year and compared to the rest on this list it has the best shot of winning.
What Should Win: Fargo. Like I said before, AHS wasn’t great and while I like Luther, I think that Fargo should take home the award this time around. Idris Elba’s got some time.
Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
The Normal Heart
Sherlock: His Las Vow
The Trip to Bountiful
What Will Win: The Normal Heart. Making a movie about AIDS awareness is basically the same thing as when you play the AIDS card in Apples to Apples: It always wins.
What Should Win: The Normal Heart. AIDS awareness is important. I’m not that big of a biyatch.
Supporting Actor in a Drama
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
Who Will Win: Peter Dinklage. I know most people are hoping Aaron Paul gets it, but Peter Dinklage in Game of Thrones this season is unbeatable. Even the Academy can’t deny that.
Who Should Win: Peter Dinklage! If you haven’t seen his trial speech, Google it now. Then you will understand why he completely deserves the award this year. It was perfection.
Supporting Actress in a Drama
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Who Will Win: Anna Gunn will be another chance to honor Breaking Bad. The Downton Abbey girls normally cancel each other out as well.
Who Should Win: Lena Headey. Maybe I am biased toward GOT, but Headey was great this season and probably won’t have another shot at an Emmy, whereas Anna Gunn won last year.
Directing for a Drama
Tim Van Patten, Boardwalk Empire
Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad
David Evans, Downton Abbey
Neil Marshall, Game of Thrones
Carl Franklin, House of Cards
Cary Joji Fukunaga, True Detective
Who Will Win: Cary Joji Fukunaga. Since Vince Gilligan will be getting recognized in other categories, they will give this one to True Detective.
Who Should Win: Cary Joji Fukunaga. Since True Detective isn’t winning for best drama, it should get awarded somewhere and everything about the directing was great. It’s probably extremely hard to direct two A-list Hollywood actors as well.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Fred Armisen, Portlandia
Tony Hale, Veep
Who Will Win: Jesse Tyler Ferguson. He’s been nominated against his coworkers for five years now and he’s the only one who hasn’t won.
Who Should Win: Jesse Tyler Ferguson. I actually agree with this one because without him the Modern Family wouldn’t be as successful as it is.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Allison Janney, Mom
Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Who Will Win: Kate Mulgrew. She had a huge season on OITNB and Julie Bowen has already won a couple times. No one else is being buzzed about.
Who Should Win: Kate Mulgrew. None of the other ones really stand out to me at this point and Red was a major character for OITNB this season.
Directing for a Comedy
Iain B. MacDonald, Episodes
Paris Barclay, Glee
Louis C.K., Louie
Gail Mancuso, Modern Family
Jodie Foster, Orange Is the New Black
Mike Judge, Silicon Valley
Who Will Win: Jodie Foster, yet another movie actor turned director. The show is already taking home everything, they will want to give it to Foster.
Who Should Win: Gail Mancuso. Modern Family is still amazing and should be recognized for that.
Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Colin Hanks, Fargo
Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart
Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
Who Will Win: Colin Hanks. I think The Normal Heart guys will actually cancel each other out here leaving the win to Colin or Martin.
Who Should Win: Matt Bomer! I honestly wouldn’t care who wins this award, but Matt Bomer is the perfect human being and I would like to watch him speak, therefore he should win.
Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven
Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
Allison Tolman, Fargo
Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
Who Will Win: Julia Roberts. Again, they love when movie actors do something with TV and there’s already tons of buzz around The Normal Heart, so there is a good chance Roberts will take this home.
Who Should Win: Kathy Bates. Kathy Bates playing an immortal racist. I don’t think I need to elaborate.
Guest Actress in a Comedy
Natasha Lyonne, Orange Is the New Black
Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Laverne Cox, Orange Is the New Black
Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
Joan Cusack, Shameless
Who Will Win: Uzo Aduba, because Crazy Eyes is hands down the best character on OITNB ... but they may go with Laverne Cox and make a statement, making Cox the first transgender Emmy winner.
Who Should Win: Laverne Cox. I want to see some history in the making here. Plus I absolutely adore Sophia on the show. She’s great!